Which Crypto will ultimately win the horse race?

Every day that goes by, there are new and promising crypto assets and a lot of shitcoins as well.  Discerning which ones to put your valuable fiat into is no easy gambit.  The trick in my opinion is to look what makes them truly valuable and then rate/rank them.

The main issue is what is your time horizon?  Since I’m a long term thinker and not a gambler I’m going to discuss what will provide value over a long time horizon.   I’m putting my money into cryptos that have the following qualities:

  • Deep Market:  Need to be able to easily buy and sell.  Regardless of how quickly a coin goes up, if you cannot sell due to lack of volume, you don’t really have all the profits.
  • Hashing power:  If you  don’t have large computation security, then you will eventually get hacked
  • Development:  Does your crypto have a dedicated group of individuals who are passionate about the project?
  • Decentralization:  If your coin can be hijacked by malicious power bases then it’s not truly safe
  • Fungability:   If all coins are not equal, then you could get a “dirty” coin and not be able to spend it

Of the qualities above, I believe decentralization is most important, because without it you will always have group trying to control it.  Once a coin/crypto is controlled then it’s only as strong as that group.  When a government wants to know who owns what coin or wishes to shut it down, there is an easy attack vector.  Find the controllers and apply pressure/wealth/fame/torture until it gets them to do as the government wishes.

Next, it has to be fungable.  If all coins are not treated the same then the system falls apart and people will leave for value, anonymity and security.  If you’ve been paying attention, you can see the struggle that bitcoin is currently having.  There are groups all fighting to control its future.  If BTC can shrug it off and continue to become more decentralized then it may win the race.  If one of the groups becomes dominant, then it will fall in value and stature and the next horse will pass it and win.

@braincramps

How Bitcoin will change your life

It is common now to see people tweet before/after pics of like the spoof I just did of Christopher Lloyd.

The before pic is usually some mild mannered person and the after is “woke”.  For me, bitcoin was a discovery that dominated my life at a greater and greater rate.  I started to understand the impact it could make to decentralize the world and then as a store of value that could make great returns for early investors.

Initially I mined a few tenths of a btc on slush’s pool in late 2012 using a GPU, when you could actually still do that. Then I got caught up in the butterfly labs scam and purchased of of their first ASIC miners, which was already behind the curve by the time I received it (almost 1 year later).  I have not mined since then, because it’s just not profitable for the common man due to electrical costs.

The most powerful draw for me is that btc is freedom.  I’m a wannabe anarchist who dislikes government and think they are one of the true evils in the world.  Not that they set out to be evil, they just devolve over time… all of them, without exception.  People drawn to power are not the people who you want ruling over you, because they will always choose to impose their will and rob you blind; human nature does not change.  The biggest question is why do we need rulers?  I believe the crypto universe is the best hope for mankind in removing the people and laws that try to control  us.

Charles Hugh Smith of the website oftwominds.com has proposed a system called CLIME that outlines how crypto can be used to restructure how people deal with one another in a equitable way that takes care of the folks who cannot take care of themselves.  There is always paid work, because value is given to every task, all the way down to cleaning bike paths and picking up trash on the road.  Please take the time to read the brief outline and gain some insight into how wonderful life could be.  His system comes as close to eliminating poverty of any thing I’ve ever read.

Once you have gotten bitten by the bitcoin bug, it’s hard to ever look at the world in the same way.  You keep working your way down the rabbit hole and learn that it’s a never ending lesson.  Mankind has just now scratched the surface on the power that is being unleashed.  Everyday there are more articles on where it can go then you’ll have time to read.  I’m going to be writing more in the coming weeks on some of these paths and how they may play out.  It’s been a wild ride, but I wouldn’t have had it any other way…

 

 

 

 

Why the term “Fair” is a self-delusion

On my first interview out of college I was asked if it was better to be fair or consistent.  I answered fair, thinking it was much nobler that the non-sexy foe.  My soon to be boss then asked me if I were to ask a Democrat and Republican the same question about taxes would they both come to the same “fair” conclusion?  It dawned on me that fair is always in the eye of the beholder and has no basis in reality. Consistent on the other hand does a day in, day out job that makes for great bosses, employers and spouses.

Fairness comes from our thoughts, but is manipulated by our motivated reasoning.  Our unconscious motivations tend to be biased based on our life, our teachers and circumstances.  If we are watching a football game and there is a penalty on our side, we naturally are unhappy with the decision even if it was correct.  This self-delusion is found in all of us, but there are ways to combat it if you are willing to be introspective and wish to change.

The key to learning to hate the word “fair” and embrace consistent is to understand that we are emotional creatures.  Once you accept that emotions can play a large part in your decisions then you can move forward.  Curiosity is one of the big keys, you need to dig in and not just accept things at face value.  You need to unhook your self-worth from never being wrong and maintaining beliefs because you have espoused them.  You need to gain pleasure and confidence from having changed your mind to a better argument.  You need to feel virtue at testing your own beliefs and understand that changing your mind is strength, not weakness.  Self worth should not be tied to how right or wrong you are, but in your ability to be flexible as facts change.

 

The Norks are mining Bitcoin… here’s why

Question:  If you’re a despot of a country that has no wares to sell the rest of the country, how do you get $ to buy them?

Answer:  Buy some bitcoin miners and sell it on exchanges.  NK has nukes, so cheap power isn’t the issue, so gitty up Kim

Rumor:  North Korea started mining about the same time as the Wannacry ransomeware attacks occured and now they have BTC they need to sell (launder).  This gives them plausible deniability…

If only the CIA hadn’t been so reckless with all the Vault 7 code, we wouldn’t be in all this ransomeware mess!

Thoughts on why there is a war in the Bitcoin community

War in Bitcoin is due to the fact that everyone is acting in their own self interest, which is what Satoshi intended.  Unfortunately, interests started to veer apart when entrepreneurs started looking for volume to make their businesses succeed.  Due to the network effect, bitcoin has become better used a store of value, it’s why everyone talks about Hodling.

As segwit gets locked in and the layer two protocols become enacted, we will start to see how bitcoin can be used for rapid and low cost payments.  This may be accomplished via the lightning network systems or a sidechain or something totally new.  Time and talent will determine the winner in scaling of bitcoin.  I believe that once we have the layer 2 scaling solution then entrepreneur’s interests will once align with the hodlers, coders and miners and the storm that is called bitcoin will start to clear.